Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

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Forecast and Share Your Reasoning With GiveWell by January 1st — $3,500 in prizes

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Question

Will "Planet Nine" be discovered in 2016?

Resolved :No38%
47
23
Total Forecasters160
Community Prediction38% (25% - 46%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 38%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
15.0
Community Peer Score
35.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Greg
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Space
Natural Sciences
2016 Leaderboard
Astronomy
Mauna Kea
W. M. Keck Observatory
Mauna Kea Observatories
Planet Nine
Astrophysics
Konstantin Batygin
Michael E. Brown
Kuiper belt

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