The Keep Virginia Safe II Tournament, developed in partnership with the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute to aid decision-making at the Virginia Department of Health, has concluded, awarding a $20,000 prize pool to the top forecasters. Justin Crow, Foresight and Analytics Coordinator with the Virginia Department of Health, shared the following:

The Keep Virginia Safe Tournaments were an essential tool for the Commonwealth during the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency, helping us anticipate the course of the pandemic, evaluate risks, and prepare for policy impacts on our operations. Forecasts were shared with leadership, external stakeholders, and internal program staff, improving decision-making and operations. On behalf of the Virginia Department of Health, I'd like to express our appreciation to all of our tournament forecasters, and our gratitude to Metaculus for hosting the tournaments. Congratulations to the medal winners!

Here are the top three forecasters in each category:

Congratulations to the winners and to all the forecasters who earned medals, and thank you to everyone who contributed forecasts to this important initiative!

Questions in this tournament were focused on predicting the impact of COVID-19 in 2023, including the disease burden, vaccination levels, and prevalence of variants. Additional questions were also launched on environmental health factors like air quality and heat-related illness. The prize pool was distributed among three main categories of questions: $10,000 for the core Keep Virginia Safe category, $5,000 for questions about COVID-19 variant characteristics, and $5,000 for questions about COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations.

The Keep Virginia Safe II Tournament was the second of its name, and alongside other efforts to support decision making at the Virginia Department of Health, such as the Virginia Lightning Round Tournament and the Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making Tournament, demonstrated the value that forecasting can provide to decision-makers.

Find more information about the Keep Virginia Safe II Tournament at the main tournament page. The main tournament page contains the complete leaderboard for the Keep Virginia Safe category of questions. See the Hospitalizations Series page and the Variant Characteristics page for the questions in those categories and the associated leaderboards.

We will be in touch with prize winners to arrange payments. We are also happy to facilitate donations to the organizations listed here.

Congratulations again to Sergio, skmmcj, Unwrapped8600, SpottedBear, citizen, and OldJohnL!