Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Zaldath
Predictions
20922
Comments
1553
Member Since
March 2023
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Zaldath
When will the second Starship test flight occur?
Resolved :
Above upper bound
2023-10-01
158 forecasters
16
43 comments
43
🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
condition
Ukraine Control of Melitopol at End of 2023?
Resolved :
No
20 forecasters
if yes
if no
Ukraine Joins EU Before 2030
20%
20%
Resolved :
Annulled
20%
Ukraine Joins EU Before 2030
3%
3%
2
no comments
0
Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?
Resolved :
No
8%
50 forecasters
5
16 comments
16
condition
DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election?
Resolved :
Yes
16 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?
55%
55%
Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?
48%
48%
Resolved :
Annulled
48%
4
1 comment
1
condition
SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023?
Resolved :
No
36 forecasters
if yes
if no
SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
62%
62%
Resolved :
Annulled
62%
SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
54%
54%
7
6 comments
6
Will the United States confiscate privately owned gold collections before 2035?
2%
52 forecasters
7
8 comments
8
When will the next Nankai megathrust earthquake occur?
2043-07-07
13 forecasters
6
17 comments
17