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Alvin's Community Page

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9 Questions

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Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?

124 forecasters

6

Five Years After AGI

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

607 forecasters

91

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

298 forecasters

34

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

-2

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?

12

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

12

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)

David Mathers' Community

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?

David Mathers' Community

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

Your forecast of Crowd Median