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AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
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What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
1.25
12 forecasters
2
no comments
0
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
65.7
15 forecasters
2
1 comment
1
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025, in USD billions?
16.3B
8 forecasters
2
no comments
0
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?
85%
8 forecasters
2
no comments
0
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?
89.3
12 forecasters
2
no comments
0
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
70.3
8 forecasters
2
no comments
0
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
70.8
10 forecasters
2
1 comment
1
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?
25%
8 forecasters
2
no comments
0
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
52%
12 percentage points this week
11 forecasters
2
no comments
0
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?
Resolved :
Yes
99.9%
7 forecasters
2
1 comment
1
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
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