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AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
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In what year will there will be High Level Machine Intelligence which can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers?
2033-01-25
4 forecasters
1
no comments
0
How likely do you think it is that overall, the impact of High Level Machine Intelligence will be extremely negative for humanity in the long run?
60%
3 forecasters
1
no comments
0
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
14
14.5 this week
5 forecasters
no comments
0
What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
1.01
0.204 this week
3 forecasters
no comments
0
What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?
77.3
12 this week
4 forecasters
no comments
0
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
52.3
13.2 this week
3 forecasters
no comments
0
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
50%
18 percentage points this week
4 forecasters
no comments
0
What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025, in USD billions?
19.7B
3 forecasters
no comments
0
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
62.3
9.87 this week
3 forecasters
no comments
0
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?
60%
11 percentage points this week
3 forecasters
no comments
0
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