Question

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

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Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction25% (25% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 4, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

AI 2025 Forecasting Survey

Artificial Intelligence

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Verge•Feb 13, 2025

Meta says it may stop development of AI systems it deems too risky

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

85%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

52%

Will the US government maintain a public list of incidents related to AI safety on January 1, 2030?

60%

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