Question

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?

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Total Forecasters3

Community Prediction70% (50% - 70%)

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50%

community: 70%

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Which AI Companies Are the Safest—and Least Safe?

Time•Dec 13, 2024

OpenAI is done with Shipmas and staring down daunting challenges for 2025

NBC•Dec 21, 2024

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

67%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

27%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

30%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Which AI Companies Are the Safest—and Least Safe?

Time•Dec 13, 2024

OpenAI is done with Shipmas and staring down daunting challenges for 2025

NBC•Dec 21, 2024

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

67%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

27%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

30%

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Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?

Make a Prediction

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

Comments

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?