Question
In what year will there will be High Level Machine Intelligence which can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers?
Total Forecasters12
Community Prediction
Aug 2028
(Oct 2026 - Nov 2031)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Oct 2026 | — |
| median | Aug 2028 | — |
| upper 75% | Nov 2031 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >315575640000% | 0.7% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Dec 4, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2069
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2070
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 9, 2024
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 4, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2069
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2070
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 9, 2024
