Question

Will a tool that can easily generate whole-cloth generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?

no comments0

Total Forecasters6

Community Prediction

97%

(95% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 97%

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 3, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2025

AI Warning Signs

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI’s Sora Is Plagued by Sexist, Racist, and Ableist Biases

Wired•Mar 23, 2025

‘We need to set the terms or we’re all screwed’: how newsrooms are tackling AI’s uncertainties and opportunities

Guardian•Mar 22, 2025

DeepSeek: Everything you need to know about the AI chatbot app

TechCrunch•Mar 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

90%

Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?

10%

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

60%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 3, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2025

AI Warning Signs

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI’s Sora Is Plagued by Sexist, Racist, and Ableist Biases

Wired•Mar 23, 2025

‘We need to set the terms or we’re all screwed’: how newsrooms are tackling AI’s uncertainties and opportunities

Guardian•Mar 22, 2025

DeepSeek: Everything you need to know about the AI chatbot app

TechCrunch•Mar 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

90%

Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?

10%

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

60%