Question

Will a tool that can easily generate whole-cloth generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?

no comments0

Total Forecasters3

Community Prediction95% (95% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 3, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

AI Warning Signs

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Can You Spot A Deepfake? Take This Free Online Quiz To Find Out

Forbes•Feb 14, 2025

OpenAI releases AI video generator Sora but limits how it depicts people

Associated Press•Feb 20, 2025

YouTube star Marques Brownlee has pointed questions for OpenAI after its Sora video model created a plant just like his

Business Insider•Feb 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

80%

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

67%

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

62.8%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 3, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

AI Warning Signs

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Can You Spot A Deepfake? Take This Free Online Quiz To Find Out

Forbes•Feb 14, 2025

OpenAI releases AI video generator Sora but limits how it depicts people

Associated Press•Feb 20, 2025

YouTube star Marques Brownlee has pointed questions for OpenAI after its Sora video model created a plant just like his

Business Insider•Feb 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

80%

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

67%

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

62.8%