Question

Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters7

Community Prediction80% (40% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 14, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

AI Warning Signs

Artificial Intelligence

Crypto scams likely hit a new record in 2024, driven by 'pig butchering' and AI, says Chainalysis

CNBC•Feb 13, 2025

AI has been a boon for crypto scammers

Business Insider•Feb 14, 2025

AI-Powered Crypto: A Smart Bet, Or A Dangerous Gamble?

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

80%

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

50%

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

62.8%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 14, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

AI Warning Signs

Artificial Intelligence

Crypto scams likely hit a new record in 2024, driven by 'pig butchering' and AI, says Chainalysis

CNBC•Feb 13, 2025

AI has been a boon for crypto scammers

Business Insider•Feb 14, 2025

AI-Powered Crypto: A Smart Bet, Or A Dangerous Gamble?

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

80%

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

50%

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

62.8%