Question

Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction

90%

(80% - 96%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 14, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2025

AI Warning Signs

Artificial Intelligence

How do you get ChatGPT to create malware strong enough to breach Google's password manager? Just play pretend.

Business Insider•Mar 23, 2025

Reid Hoffman: ‘Start using AI deeply. It is a huge intelligence amplifier’

Guardian•Mar 23, 2025

How do you get ChatGPT to create malware strong enough to breach Google's password manager? Just play pretend.

Business Insider•Mar 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

80%

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

70%

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

63%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 14, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2025

AI Warning Signs

Artificial Intelligence

How do you get ChatGPT to create malware strong enough to breach Google's password manager? Just play pretend.

Business Insider•Mar 23, 2025

Reid Hoffman: ‘Start using AI deeply. It is a huge intelligence amplifier’

Guardian•Mar 23, 2025

How do you get ChatGPT to create malware strong enough to breach Google's password manager? Just play pretend.

Business Insider•Mar 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

80%

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

70%

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

63%