Question

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction50% (33% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 14, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

AI Warning Signs

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

DeepSeek Release Reveals Hidden Dangers of AI

Red State•Feb 12, 2025

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Liar, Liar: Latest ChatGPT Model Deceives Testers, Resists Shutdown Attempts

Breitbart•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

80%

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

95%

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

2026-11-05

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 14, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

AI Warning Signs

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

DeepSeek Release Reveals Hidden Dangers of AI

Red State•Feb 12, 2025

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Liar, Liar: Latest ChatGPT Model Deceives Testers, Resists Shutdown Attempts

Breitbart•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

80%

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

95%

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

2026-11-05