Question

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction

70%

(50% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 14, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2025

AI Warning Signs

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

How do you get ChatGPT to create malware strong enough to breach Google's password manager? Just play pretend.

Business Insider•Mar 23, 2025

Reid Hoffman: ‘Start using AI deeply. It is a huge intelligence amplifier’

Guardian•Mar 23, 2025

How do you get ChatGPT to create malware strong enough to breach Google's password manager? Just play pretend.

Business Insider•Mar 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

90%

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

95%

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

Nov 2026

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 14, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2025

AI Warning Signs

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

How do you get ChatGPT to create malware strong enough to breach Google's password manager? Just play pretend.

Business Insider•Mar 23, 2025

Reid Hoffman: ‘Start using AI deeply. It is a huge intelligence amplifier’

Guardian•Mar 23, 2025

How do you get ChatGPT to create malware strong enough to breach Google's password manager? Just play pretend.

Business Insider•Mar 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

90%

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

95%

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

Nov 2026