Question

Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters11

Community Prediction

69%

(43.4% - 88%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 69%

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 15, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2025

AI Warning Signs

Artificial Intelligence

Geopolitics

The Perilous Race to Superintelligent A.I.: Progress or Pandora’s Box?

Observer (NY)•Mar 22, 2025

AI Sovereignty—A National Security Imperative | Opinion

Newsweek•Mar 21, 2025

The Chinese Neocolonial Empire

CounterPunch•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Five years after AGI, will an AI company be a military power?

Will US government forbid an AI training run outside the US for national security reasons by 2038?

36%

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 15, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2025

AI Warning Signs

Artificial Intelligence

Geopolitics

The Perilous Race to Superintelligent A.I.: Progress or Pandora’s Box?

Observer (NY)•Mar 22, 2025

AI Sovereignty—A National Security Imperative | Opinion

Newsweek•Mar 21, 2025

The Chinese Neocolonial Empire

CounterPunch•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Five years after AGI, will an AI company be a military power?

Will US government forbid an AI training run outside the US for national security reasons by 2038?

36%