Question

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction

63%

(43% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 63%

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 17, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2025

AI Warning Signs

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Could Google Stock Triple?

Forbes•Mar 24, 2025

DeepSeek: Everything you need to know about the AI chatbot app

TechCrunch•Mar 22, 2025

The Prompt: Meta’s Llama Has Been Downloaded Over One Billion Times

Forbes•Mar 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

90%

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

70%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 17, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2025

AI Warning Signs

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Could Google Stock Triple?

Forbes•Mar 24, 2025

DeepSeek: Everything you need to know about the AI chatbot app

TechCrunch•Mar 22, 2025

The Prompt: Meta’s Llama Has Been Downloaded Over One Billion Times

Forbes•Mar 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

90%

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

70%