Question

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction72.5 (54.6 - 86.4)

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This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	54.55	72.45	86.42
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	54.55	—
median	72.45	—
upper 75%	86.42	—

Authors:

romeodean

Opened:

Feb 9, 2025

Closed:

Feb 17, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Harvard's AI Safety Student Team

AI Embodies Our Education Standards, For Better or Worse

Psychology Today•Feb 12, 2025

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

These researchers used NPR Sunday Puzzle questions to benchmark AI ‘reasoning’ models

TechCrunch•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

65.7

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

1.25

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

89.3

Comments

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Authors:

romeodean

Opened:

Feb 9, 2025

Closed:

Feb 17, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Harvard's AI Safety Student Team

AI Embodies Our Education Standards, For Better or Worse

Psychology Today•Feb 12, 2025

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

These researchers used NPR Sunday Puzzle questions to benchmark AI ‘reasoning’ models

TechCrunch•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

65.7

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

1.25

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

89.3