Question

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Model Autonomy?

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Total Forecasters6

Community Prediction60% (54% - 90%)

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50%

community: 60%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Authors:

romeodean

Opened:

Feb 9, 2025

Closed:

Feb 17, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

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Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

40%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

52%

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

96%

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