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When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus
2027-07-07
14 forecasters
1
4 comments
4
David Mathers' Community
By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?
Resolved :
Dec 20, 2024
2026-07-08
4 forecasters
1
4 comments
4
David Mathers' Community
When will the market for industrial robots reach $100 trillion in size?
2036-10-20
4 forecasters
no comments
0
David Mathers' Community
What will be total US power consumption in terrawatt hours in 2031?
6.64k
3 forecasters
no comments
0
David Mathers' Community
Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)
25%
11 percentage points this week
15 forecasters
1
1 comment
1
David Mathers' Community
When will models hit 75% on SWE-Bench [Edit: Verified version]
2025-07-29
9 forecasters
3
3 comments
3
David Mathers' Community
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 2 AI (human-level reasoners)
2025-01-26
1 forecaster
no comments
0
David Mathers' Community
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)
2025-05-18
1 forecaster
no comments
0
David Mathers' Community
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?
2025-08-04
1 forecaster
no comments
0
David Mathers' Community
Will AGI-caused economic growth lead to lab-grown meat pushing out factory farming?
30%
20 percentage points this week
8 forecasters
1
no comments
0
David Mathers' Community
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