Question

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

Resolved :Dec 20, 20242026-07-08

Total Forecasters4

Community Prediction2026-07-08 (2025-06-27 - 2028-03-05)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2199-12-22
community	2025	2026	2028	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2025	—
median	2026	—
upper 75%	2028	—
Upper bound
>2199-12-22	0.1%	—

What was the final result?Dec 20, 2024

Community Baseline Score

0.4

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

DavidMathers

Opened:

Jul 24, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2199

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2200

David Mathers' Community

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