🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

/David Mathers' Community
Question

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

Resolved :Dec 20, 20242026-07-08
1
4
Total Forecasters4
Community Prediction2026-07-08 (2025-06-27 - 2028-03-05)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2199-12-22
...
...
...
...
2025-06-27 04:38
2026-07-08 12:29
2028-03-05 20:35
0.1%

What was the final result?Dec 20, 2024

Community Baseline Score
0.4
Community Peer Score
0.0
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
DavidMathers
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
David Mathers' Community
Artificial Intelligence

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