Question

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 2 AI (human-level reasoners)

Total Forecasters1

Community Prediction2025-01-26 (2024-12-30 - 2025-02-22)

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weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2034-12-31
community	Dec 2024	Jan 2025	Feb 2025	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Dec 2024	—
median	Jan 2025	—
upper 75%	Feb 2025	—
Upper bound
>2034-12-31	0.1%	—

Authors:

DavidA.B.Mathers

Opened:

Aug 20, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2035

David Mathers' Community

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