Question

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

4 comments4

Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction

Feb 2028

(Jul 2026 - Feb 2030)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>Jan 2034
community	Jul 2026	Feb 2028	Feb 2030	2.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Jul 2026	—
median	Feb 2028	—
upper 75%	Feb 2030	—
Upper bound
>201977280000%	2.1%	—

Authors:

DavidA.B.Mathers

Opened:

Sep 11, 2024

Closes:

Feb 1, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

May 31, 2034

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 14, 2024

David Mathers' Community

Summary by AI

•Mar 23, 2025

DeepSeek: Everything you need to know about the AI chatbot app

TechCrunch•Mar 22, 2025

AI can forecast the weather in seconds without needing supercomputers

New Scientist•Mar 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2031

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

23%

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