Question

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

Total Forecasters14

Community Prediction2027-07-07 (2026-02-03 - 2029-01-07)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2034-01-02
community	Feb 2026	Jul 2027	Jan 2029	2.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Feb 2026	—
median	Jul 2027	—
upper 75%	Jan 2029	—
Upper bound
>2034-01-02	2.4%	—

Authors:

DavidA.B.Mathers

Opened:

Sep 11, 2024

Closes:

Feb 1, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

May 31, 2034

David Mathers' Community

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When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2031-06-01

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Will AI outperform superforecasters before 2030?

42%

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