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Bright Line Watch
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JohnCarey
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Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?
15%
55 percentage points this week
141 forecasters
6
10 comments
10
Bright Line Watch
Will eight or more of the fifteen heads of the executive departments be serving in an acting role on December 31, 2026?
22%
70 forecasters
7
6 comments
6
Bright Line Watch
Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?
99%
67 forecasters
6
3 comments
3
Bright Line Watch
Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?
45%
21 percentage points this week
111 forecasters
11
32 comments
32
Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?
55%
1062 forecasters
33
17 comments
17
ACX 2025 Prediction Contest
Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?
65%
50 forecasters
4
6 comments
6
Bright Line Watch
Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?
45%
923 forecasters
14
5 comments
5
ACX 2025 Prediction Contest
Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?
2%
73 forecasters
3
3 comments
3
Bright Line Watch
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
23%
111 forecasters
17
32 comments
32
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?
80%
10 percentage points this week
38 forecasters
5
4 comments
4
Bright Line Watch
Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?
42%
16 percentage points this week
47 forecasters
5
2 comments
2
Bright Line Watch
Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?
80%
40 forecasters
4
2 comments
2
Bright Line Watch
Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?
15%
50 forecasters
5
2 comments
2
Bright Line Watch
Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?
7.2%
41 forecasters
5
1 comment
1
Bright Line Watch
Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?
18%
38 forecasters
3
2 comments
2
Bright Line Watch
Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?
30%
10 percentage points this week
111 forecasters
11
16 comments
16
Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?
73.6%
48 forecasters
2
2 comments
2
Bright Line Watch
Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?
15%
37 forecasters
2
2 comments
2
Bright Line Watch
Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?
0.1%
40 forecasters
2 comments
2
Bright Line Watch
Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 50% before 2027?
1%
56 forecasters
3
2 comments
2
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