Question

Probability of any police being called to end a student protest by OCT 24th

Resolved :No20%

no comments0

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction20% (6% - 25.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

67.1

Community Peer Score

29.3

Authors:

quinoa

Opened:

Oct 10, 2024

Closes:

Oct 20, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 24, 2024

Brown University Forecasting Team

Repression vs. Activism — Colleges Crack Down While Gaza Solidarity Persists

CounterPunch•Feb 12, 2025

UN rights office estimates up to 1,400 killed in crackdown on student-led protests in Bangladesh

Associated Press•Feb 12, 2025

UN rights office estimates up to 1,400 killed in crackdown on protests in Bangladesh

CNN•Feb 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Global Protest Tracker report a protest in any of these areas before May 1, 2025?

75%

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?

0.5%

Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?

Comments

? comments