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Forecasting AI Futures

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11 Questions

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When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

608 forecasters

91

Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?

125 forecasters

5

Five Years After AGI

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

-2

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?

12

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

12

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

298 forecasters

34

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

5

Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?

5

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)

David Mathers' Community

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?

David Mathers' Community