Question

When will the first privately governed charter city have 10,000 residents?

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Total Forecasters3

Community Prediction

2060

(2044 - 2070)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2097
community	2044	2060	2070	1.5%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2044	—
median	2060	—
upper 75%	2070	—
Upper bound
>400789800000%	1.5%	—

Authors:

sandman

Opened:

Feb 21, 2025

Closes:

Jan 2, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 21, 2025

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Atlantic•Mar 22, 2025

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Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?

4.9%

How many charter cities will exist by 2026?

33.4

Will a floating community with a permanent population of at least 100 people exist by the end of 2026, as reported by the Seasteading Institute?

11%

Comments

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Authors:

sandman

Opened:

Feb 21, 2025

Closes:

Jan 2, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 21, 2025

The Best (And Most Affordable) Places To Live In America: 2025 Report

Forbes•Mar 25, 2025

The future happens in Oakland first. That’s a cautionary tale for global cities

Guardian•Mar 22, 2025

Americans Are Buying an Escape Plan

Atlantic•Mar 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?

4.9%

How many charter cities will exist by 2026?

33.4

Will a floating community with a permanent population of at least 100 people exist by the end of 2026, as reported by the Seasteading Institute?

11%