Question

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

39 comments39

Total Forecasters1323

Community Prediction65% (49% - 80%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 65%

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Dec 20, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

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Geopolitics

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As the Ukraine war reaches its 3-year mark, Russia seems to have time on its side as talks start

Associated Press•Feb 20, 2025

Can there be peace in Ukraine, or is Putin just playing for time?

NPR Online News•Feb 22, 2025

3 years on, here's what to keep an eye on in the Ukraine war — and efforts to end it

NPR Online News•Feb 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before April 19, 2025?

15%

If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?

80%

Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before May 1, 2025?

21.7%

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