Question

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters1029

Community Prediction

(5% - 14%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 8%

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Dec 20, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 1, 2025

ACX 2025 Prediction Contest

Future Perfect

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Nuclear Technology & Risks

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US Threatens 'All Options on the Table' for Iran

Newsweek•Mar 24, 2025

Trump administration is seeking "full dismantlement" of Iran's nuclear program, Waltz says

CBS•Mar 24, 2025

Iranian Regime’s Nuclear Crisis and Diplomatic Tensions: Negotiation or Confrontation?

American Thinker•Mar 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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12 Dec 2025

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

19%

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