M

/Gary Marcus's AI Forecasts

Question

Will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive in 2025?

Total Forecasters1

Community Prediction33% (33% - 33%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 33%

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 5, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2026

Gary Marcus's AI Forecasts

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI boss Sam Altman says human-level intelligence is coming – and it won’t be fair

Independent•Feb 12, 2025

Meta says it may stop development of AI systems it deems too risky

TechCrunch•Feb 16, 2025

SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son says AGI will arrive ‘much earlier’ than he thought

Verge•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

Opened:

Jan 5, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2026

Gary Marcus's AI Forecasts

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI boss Sam Altman says human-level intelligence is coming – and it won’t be fair

Independent•Feb 12, 2025

Meta says it may stop development of AI systems it deems too risky

TechCrunch•Feb 16, 2025

SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son says AGI will arrive ‘much earlier’ than he thought

Verge•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch