Question

How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in March 2025?

Forecast Timeline

0-5

6-10

>10

Make a Prediction

Number		My Prediction		Me
0-5	-

6-10	-

>10	-

Total: ?

(? remaining)

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Feb 1, 2025

Closes:

Mar 30, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 3, 2025

Flagler College Spring 2025

Geopolitics

Conflicts of Interest: Biden Approves $8 Billion Weapon Sale to Israel

AntiWar•Jan 26, 2025

US Has Given Israel $22 Billion in Military Aid Since October 2023

AntiWar•Jan 27, 2025

World Map Shows Most Dangerous Conflicts for US in 2025

Newsweek•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What percentage of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030?

2.58

What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates?

34.7

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Feb 1, 2025

Closes:

Mar 30, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 3, 2025

Flagler College Spring 2025

Geopolitics

Conflicts of Interest: Biden Approves $8 Billion Weapon Sale to Israel

AntiWar•Jan 26, 2025

US Has Given Israel $22 Billion in Military Aid Since October 2023

AntiWar•Jan 27, 2025

World Map Shows Most Dangerous Conflicts for US in 2025

Newsweek•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What percentage of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030?

2.58

What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates?

34.7

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%