Leaderboards

Peer Accuracy

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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The Peer Accuracy leaderboards used slightly different math before 2024. See details here.

	User	Questions	Score
1	ElliotOlds	20	17.8
2	jzima	43	17
3	Recency Weighted CP	57	16.8
3	raven.kopelman	44	15.5
4	AndrewMcKnight	55	13.6
5	chris.j.cundy	41	13
6	jimrandomh	49	12.3
7	erik.bjareholt	41	12.2
8	gjm	48	11.4
9	Barbarossa	30	9.71
10	FinanAdamson	54	8.72
11	James	54	8.57
12	Sigbold	18	8.38
13	shahar.avin	49	8.38
14	moons R us	45	8.34
15	Random5	34	7.62
16	banefieldeth	19	7.15
17	lukas.baker	29	6.85
18	1984gf	4	6.05
19	traviswfisher	56	6.02
20	Reprisal	13	5.76
21	babtras	41	5.24
22	englisc aspyrgend	34	5.21
23	pashka	14	5.21