Consensus looks too low for 'other'. Note that you can get to an 'other' resolution by an exact tie, and IMO probability of a tie isn't as low as 0.1%. I went for 0.5% but mostly intuition based. There is at least one historical precedent for an exact tie during the 72nd Congress starting 1931.

It's looking roughly 50/50 at the moment. Election Betting Odds has it now at 55-45 (in favor of Democrats). https://electionbettingodds.com/House-Control-2026.html The main reason for the huge shift in favor of Republicans recently is probably that they're clearly winning the gerrymandering fight... 1\) There are c

Updates since Zaldath's comment last month: California's Proposotion 50 actually passed, estimates seem to be 3-5 additional House seats for Democrats Election Betting Odds is back up at 71-29, favoring the Democrats

I have this script that will take the odds for each race from Polymarket, normalize them (accounting for competitive independents in Montana and Nebraska) and then calculate the cumulative distribution for getting >=X (while treating each race as independent). It gets around 53.5% for Dems getting at least 51 seats. Th

Looking at the 2026 map, it seems like possible pickups for Democrats are in Ohio (?), Maine and North Carolina while they are vulnerable in Michigan, Colorado and Georgia. I don't think realistically Texas or Louisiana or any other state seems up for grabs. Even if all of these swing Democrats way, the Republicans st

The Senate and House respond to different structural forces. Senate control is primarily driven by seat exposure and state-level fundamentals, while the House is more sensitive to national mood and turnout dynamics. In polarized environments, this asymmetry increases the base rate of divided government relative to unif

Rationale My forecast prioritizes structural asymmetry and base-rate outcomes over short-term polling noise. Rather than treating the four outcomes symmetrically, I decompose the question into separate Senate and House dynamics and recombine them into a joint distribution. Why divided government is the modal outcome

The questions about the overall balance of power in the Senate and House have been open for many months. For tournament ranking, does only the coverage from May 27 onwards count?

Does this tournament run until January 2029, since the Democracy Threat Index question can only be resolved after Dec 31 2028?

Up until now I was using polling numbers but not working through the different possible general matchups and what would matter in each case. And after applying the probabilities to each potential path to victory for each candidate I've surprisingly (to me at least) arrived pretty much at the consensus conclusion, so I

Why was there no adjustment to the expectation on this question when redistricting has or will gerrymander a net 24 seats for the republicans in the house? Louisiana and South Carolina are each drawing in another seat. TX: +3-5R🔴FL: +3-5R🔴OH: +1-3R🔴NC: +1R🔴TN: +1R🔴MO: +1 —R🔵CA: +3-5D🔵UT: +1 D Total Passed:🔴Re