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Forecast 2025 With Vox's Future Perfect Team — $2,500 Prize Pool

Dec 20, 2024•by christian•4 comments•2 min read

How "Scope Sensitive" are o1-preview and GPT4o's forecasts? Not very.

Dec 9, 2024•by Tom_Metaculus•3 comments•3 min read

Follow, Predict, Withdraw, Find, Predict again

Dec 9, 2024•by Sylvain•13 comments•2 min read

Collaborative Intelligence: Harnessing Crowd Forecasting for National Security

Dec 4, 2024•by deger•1 comment•6 min read

Conference Summary: Threshold 2030 - Modeling AI Economic Futures

Nov 19, 2024•by dyncheng•1 comment•9 min read

Predictions as Public Works Project — What Metaculus Is Building Next

Oct 21, 2024•by Sylvain•4 comments•8 min read

Forecast With GiveWell: $3,500 in Prizes for Comments Made by End of December!

Oct 23, 2024•by RyanBeck•7 comments•2 min read

Q3 AI Benchmarking: Did Bots Outperform Human Forecasters?

Oct 9, 2024•by Tom_Metaculus•15 comments•9 min read

A Massive Rewrite, A Slate of Improvements, and Going Open Source

Oct 7, 2024•by Sylvain•492 comments•5 min read

(10/4 Update) AI Forecasting Benchmark Series — 10/8 Q4 Launch and More

Sep 30, 2024•by christian•2 comments•3 min read