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đź“– The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

Question Series

Forecast With GiveWell

Start DateOct 23, 2024
End DateJan 1, 2030
Questions12

December 5th Update The Prize Pool is increased from $2,250 to $3,500 — See below for the new payout scale. Thank you to donors who contributed via Manifund. The deadline for submissions is January 1st.

GiveWell’s mission is to identify the charities that save or improve lives the most per dollar. As part of that mission, they regularly share public forecasts on the grant outcomes they expect. Now GiveWell wants to hear from you: Forecast and share your reasoning to provide feedback on real-world funding decisions. You’ll help GiveWell help others, and you can win cash prizes for your insights.

Click the below toggle to learn about the $3,500 commenting prize pool and judging criteria — or start forecasting and commenting on the questions in the below feed (expand the rules details below for full details and the set of eligible questions). Submit your comments before January 1st for a chance to win.

Commenting Prize Rules (click to expand)
  • A total prize pool of $3,500 will be awarded for comments on eligible questions made before January 1, 2024. Questions are tagged with "Forecast with GiveWell Comment Prize" and can be accessed via this link.
  • Ten prizes will be awarded as follows:
    • 1st place: $700
    • 2nd place: $600
    • 3rd place: $500
    • 4th place: $400
    • 5th place: $300
    • 6th place through 10th place: $200 each
  • A single commenter can win multiple prizes, up to a maximum of $1,500. Thank you to donors Austin Chen, Saul Munn, Anton Makiievskyi and Ryan Kidd for donations increasing the prize pool from $1,000 to $3,500.
  • Comments will be evaluated on the following criteria:
    • Clarity: Clear presentation of the author’s reasoning and conclusion.
    • Reasoning: A well-supported prediction that demonstrates a deep understanding of the question and uses available evidence effectively.
    • Impact: The comment should have the potential to shift or reinforce GiveWell’s confidence in their own prediction.

Metaculus will collect and share top-quality comments with GiveWell researchers after the submission deadline, with prizes awarded once scoring is completed in January 2025.

To be eligible for a prize you cannot be employed by GiveWell, be the immediate family member of someone employed by GiveWell, or share a household with someone employed by GiveWell.

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