This page belongs to a Community curated by Zvi Mowshowitz.

Note: This page belongs to a Metaculus experiment in hosting Communities managed by volunteer curators. Think "subreddits, but for forecasting." They can have more flexible questions and resolution criteria and can focus on a broader range of topics than questions in the main feed. Community questions do not appear in the main Metaculus feed by default, but may be added. Forecasts on Community pages do not contribute to standings on the main leaderboards.

Because Community pages are managed by volunteer curators, questions about resolution criteria or definitions may not be answered in a timely manner—or may not be answered at all. Further, while the Metaculus Community Guidelines apply on these pages, Communities are meant to operate largely autonomously, and so comments should not be directed to @admins.

Have feedback or ideas on the Communities experiment more generally? Let us know at support@metaculus.com.