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Conference Summary: Threshold 2030 - Modeling AI Economic Futures
4
no comments
0
Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
Sudan
Yes
Niger
67%
Haiti
60%
52 others
31
208 comments
208
Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?
62%
1115 forecasters
113
297 comments
297
Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?
34%
46 forecasters
6
13 comments
13
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?
Ivanivske
92%
Velyka Novosilka
70%
Kostyantynivka
65%
13 others
21
84 comments
84
How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?
12-15
99.5%
0-3
0.1%
4-5
0.1%
3 others
4
24 comments
24
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024?
4
95%
5
4%
2
No
4 others
5
31 comments
31
Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?
28%
134 forecasters
14
54 comments
54
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?
36.2
49 forecasters
3
23 comments
23
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
A Massive Rewrite, A Slate of Improvements, and Going Open Source
28
421 comments
421
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