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Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?
0.8%
618 forecasters
19
52 comments
52
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?
95%
12 percentage points this week
90 forecasters
8
8 comments
8
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?
0.7%
111 forecasters
4
13 comments
13
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?
8%
174 forecasters
13
88 comments
88
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?
5%
28 percentage points this week
119 forecasters
11
40 comments
40
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?
7.5
53 forecasters
6
83 comments
83
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?
99.9%
44.9 percentage points this week
67 forecasters
5
10 comments
10
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?
25%
15 percentage points this week
83 forecasters
10
24 comments
24
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?
1%
32 percentage points this week
57 forecasters
4
no comments
0
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?
2%
18 percentage points this week
59 forecasters
3
2 comments
2
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
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