Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

When will Russia's nuclear readiness scale return to Level 1?

Resolved :Ambiguous2023-11-15
8
16
Total Forecasters200
Community Prediction2023-11-15 (2023-05-18 - 2023-12-31)

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My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2023-12-31
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2023-05-18 17:38
2023-11-15 03:35
>2023-12-31 00:00
41.4%

What was the final result?Ambiguous

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Authors:
AlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Ukraine Conflict
Verity
Geopolitics
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Russia under Vladimir Putin
Russia

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