Question

Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?

Resolved :Yes

10 comments10

Total Forecasters111

Community Prediction72%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 72%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

42.1

Community Peer Score

14.4

median 72.0%mean 71.6%

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2016 US presidential election

US Congress

United States

2020 US presidential election

Russia

Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?

68%

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%

Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2016 US presidential election

US Congress

United States

2020 US presidential election

Russia

Fact-check: Did 20 million Democratic votes ‘disappear’ in the US election?

Al Jazeera•Nov 10, 2024

Did Trump and Musk actually STEAL the US presidential election?

Canary•Nov 12, 2024

Foreign influence efforts reached a fever pitch during the 2024 elections

NPR Online News•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?

68%

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%