Question

Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?

Resolved :Yes96%

135 comments135

Total Forecasters413

Community Prediction96% (90% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 96%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-25.0

Community Beer Score

13.0

Authors:

despear

Opened:

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Law

Politics

Supreme Court of the US

List of federal judges appointed by Ronald Reagan

Roe v. Wade

Texas AG Ken Paxton just broke a fragile abortion truce between states

MSNBC•Dec 17, 2024

Supreme Court takes up South Carolina's effort to defund Planned Parenthood

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

Supreme Court to hear case over South Carolina’s effort to cut Planned Parenthood funding

CNN•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

54.6

Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

despear

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Law

Politics

Supreme Court of the US

List of federal judges appointed by Ronald Reagan

Roe v. Wade

Texas AG Ken Paxton just broke a fragile abortion truce between states

MSNBC•Dec 17, 2024

Supreme Court takes up South Carolina's effort to defund Planned Parenthood

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

Supreme Court to hear case over South Carolina’s effort to cut Planned Parenthood funding

CNN•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

54.6

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

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Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?

Make a Prediction

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

Comments

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?