Question

Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?

Resolved :Yes

135 comments135

Total Forecasters413

Community Prediction96%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 96%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-25.0

Community Peer Score

13.0

median 96.0%mean 92.4%

Authors:

despear

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Law

Politics

Supreme Court of the US

List of federal judges appointed by Ronald Reagan

Roe v. Wade

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

54.4

Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

6.6%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

despear

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Law

Politics

Supreme Court of the US

List of federal judges appointed by Ronald Reagan

Roe v. Wade

Wisconsin’s high court to hear oral arguments on whether an 1849 abortion ban remains valid

Associated Press•Nov 11, 2024

Wisconsin high court to hear arguments on whether an 1849 abortion ban remains valid

NPR Online News•Nov 11, 2024

Wisconsin Supreme Court to Decide on 1849 Abortion Ban

Newsweek•Nov 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

54.4

Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

6.6%