Question

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?

Resolved :No

225 comments225

Total Forecasters897

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

87.0

Community Peer Score

11.9

median 1.0%mean 1.7%

Authors:

Gaia

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

International Nuclear Event Scale

Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant

Chernobyl disaster

International Atomic Energy Agency

Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster

Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant

Ukraine

Moment Ukrainian warehouse full of Western ammunition bursts into flames after Russian missile strike - as Kremlin claims to have seized villages in Donetsk region

Daily Mail•Oct 27, 2024

Russian forces thwart attempted cross-border assault from Ukraine, official says

Associated Press•Oct 28, 2024

Russia Launches Missile Barrage Against Ukraine's 'Palace of Industry'

Newsweek•Oct 30, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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