Question

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?

Resolved :No

12 comments12

Total Forecasters401

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.0

Community Peer Score

4.2

median 1.0%mean 1.9%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

NATO

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Comments

? comments