Question

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?

Resolved :No

12 comments12

Total Forecasters401

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.0

Community Peer Score

4.2

median 1.0%mean 1.9%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

NATO

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

NATO

If Trump wins the election, Nato can expect more turbulence ahead

Guardian•Oct 29, 2024

US Weighs NATO Ally's Offer To Shoot Down Russian Missiles Over Ukraine

Newsweek•Nov 4, 2024

Putin Ally Issues World War III Warning To NATO

Newsweek•Nov 5, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%