Question

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?

Resolved :No1%

12 comments12

Total Forecasters401

Community Prediction1% (1% - 1%)

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50%

community: 1%

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

NATO

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Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

0.5%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

NATO

Map Shows Possible WWIII Frontlines if Russia Invaded Europe

Newsweek•Dec 14, 2024

NATO Calls on Nations To Divert Social Security Money to Defense

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

Russia Warns Of NATO War Within 10 Years

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

0.5%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

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Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?

Make a Prediction

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Comments

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?