Question

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?

Resolved :No2%

44 comments44

Total Forecasters467

Community Prediction2% (1% - 4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Did this actually happen?No

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

NATO

NATO nations are reportedly in talks to boost defense spending amid Trump's return to power

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

NATO chief urges members to 'turbocharge' defense production as he paints picture of a world bound for war

FOX News•Dec 13, 2024

Panicking NATO considers raising defence spending as chief warns 'we're not ready for what's coming' in fresh WW3 alert as Trump threatens to pull out of the alliance and Putin gets upper hand in Ukra

Daily Mail•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

0.5%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

14%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

NATO

NATO nations are reportedly in talks to boost defense spending amid Trump's return to power

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

NATO chief urges members to 'turbocharge' defense production as he paints picture of a world bound for war

FOX News•Dec 13, 2024

Daily Mail•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

0.5%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

14%

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Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?

Make a Prediction

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Comments

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?