Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?

10
14
Total Forecasters67
Community Prediction2059-08-10 (2033-02-28 - 2199-08-17)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2199-12-30
...
...
...
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2033-02-28 19:22
2059-08-10 09:19
2199-08-17 15:02
24.9%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
marius.hobbhahn
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AGI Outcomes
Artificial Intelligence
Nobel Prize

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