Question
When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?
Total Forecasters67
Community Prediction2045-12-12 (2031-04-20 - 2141-01-29)
Make a Prediction
CDF
weight:
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 2031 | — |
| median | 2045 | — |
| upper 75% | 2141 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2199-12-30 | 18.7% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Mar 26, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 26, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
