Question

Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?

Resolved :No1%

33 comments33

Total Forecasters431

Community Prediction1% (1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

88.7

Community Peer Score

9.1

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Autocrat Public Figures Series

Permanent members of the United Nations Security Council

Alexander Lukashenko

Belarus–Russia relations

Ukraine

Temporarily occupied and uncontrolled territories of Ukraine

‘A ritual for a dictator’: Lukashenko critics decry Belarus election

Guardian•Jan 23, 2025

What another Lukashenko ‘victory’ will mean for Europe’s security – and that of Belarus’ citizenry

The Conversation•Jan 23, 2025

Belarus election is poised to extend the 30-year rule of ‘Europe’s last dictator’

Associated Press•Jan 24, 2025

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