Question

Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?

Resolved :No

33 comments33

Total Forecasters431

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

88.7

Community Peer Score

9.1

median 1.0%mean 1.6%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Verity

Autocrat Public Figures Series

Geopolitics

Belarus

Permanent members of the United Nations Security Council

Ukraine

Alexander Lukashenko

Belarus–Russia relations

Temporarily occupied and uncontrolled territories of Ukraine

Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

40%

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

25%

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