Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

Forecast and Share Your Reasoning With GiveWell by January 1st — $3,500 in prizes

There's still time to compete for $3,500 in commenting prizes: Learn how you can help GiveWell help others.

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Question

In 2022, will the Future Fund give more than Open Philanthropy to longtermist causes?

Resolved :Ambiguous24.2%
10
14
Total Forecasters57
Community Prediction24.2% (20% - 37%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 24.2%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

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Authors:
Pablo
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Infectious disease
Risk management
Ethics
Open Philanthropy
Future Fund
Public health
Global catastrophic risk
Epidemiology

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