Question

How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction11.7 (9.25 - 14.7)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>220
community	9.248	11.68	14.73	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	9.248	—
median	11.68	—
upper 75%	14.73	—
Upper bound
>220	0.1%	—

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Apr 26, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 30, 2026

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United Nations

People's Liberation Army

US drops website wording on not supporting Taiwan independence, prompting praise from island

USA Today•Feb 17, 2025

US drops wording saying it does not support Taiwan independence

Al Jazeera•Feb 17, 2025

China accuses U.S. of 'serious regression' in its Taiwan position after change to State Dept. website

NBC•Feb 17, 2025

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