Question

Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?

Resolved :Yes99.4%

56 comments56

Total Forecasters607

Community Prediction99.4% (99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99.4%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

57.1

Community Peer Score

31.8

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Apr 20, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Donetsk People's Republic

War in Donbass

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

Luhansk People's Republic

Ukraine

Crimea

Russia

Ukraine-Russia mapped: How battle lines compare to pre-war 2014 borders ahead of potential peace talks

Independent•Feb 13, 2025

Maps: Ukraine’s Borders Pre-2014 Invasion to Now

New York Times•Feb 13, 2025

Putin Ally Says 'New, Very Close Regions' Could Join Russia

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

16%

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

99%

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