Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%
10
11
Total Forecasters452
Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

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50%
community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
79.9
Community Peer Score
29.0
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Ukraine Conflict
Geopolitics
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Minister of Foreign Affairs (Ukraine)
Constitution of Ukraine
2008 Bucharest summit
Ukraine–NATO relations
Ukraine
NATO
Russia

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