Question

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

201 comments201

Total Forecasters696

Community Prediction2%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

median 2.0%mean 5.5%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Law

Politics

Special Counsel investigation (2017–2019)

US Department of Justice

Donald Trump

Washington, D.C.

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2029-10-05

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

Comments

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Law

Politics

Special Counsel investigation (2017–2019)

US Department of Justice

Donald Trump

Washington, D.C.

Why Trump will likely never see the inside of a prison cell — or be sentenced at all

Independent•Nov 8, 2024

Trump’s New York Case: What Happens Now?

Factcheck•Nov 8, 2024

The Case(s) Against Donald Trump

•Nov 8, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2029-10-05

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%