Question

In what percent of US states will capital punishment be legal in 2035?

Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction41.2 (33.5 - 48.6)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	33.53	41.21	48.62
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	33.53	—
median	41.21	—
upper 75%	48.62	—

Authors:

casens

Opened:

May 19, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Capital punishment in the United States

Furman v. Georgia

Gregg v. Georgia

Firing squad could become Idaho’s main execution method if governor signs bill

Guardian•Mar 6, 2025

Death by firing squad set to resume in the US – but no matter the method, all means of execution come with a troubling history

The Conversation•Mar 7, 2025

South Carolina Is Set to Execute a Man via Firing Squad: Is It More Humane?

Newsweek•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

53.9

Will over half of US states forbid affirmative action before 2035?

44%

What will the US murder rate be in 2030?

5.58

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

May 19, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Capital punishment in the United States

Furman v. Georgia

Gregg v. Georgia

Firing squad could become Idaho’s main execution method if governor signs bill

Guardian•Mar 6, 2025

Death by firing squad set to resume in the US – but no matter the method, all means of execution come with a troubling history

The Conversation•Mar 7, 2025

South Carolina Is Set to Execute a Man via Firing Squad: Is It More Humane?

Newsweek•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

53.9

Will over half of US states forbid affirmative action before 2035?

44%

What will the US murder rate be in 2030?

5.58

MetaculusM

In what percent of US states will capital punishment be legal in 2035?

Make a Prediction

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

Will over half of US states forbid affirmative action before 2035?

What will the US murder rate be in 2030?

Comments

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

Will over half of US states forbid affirmative action before 2035?

What will the US murder rate be in 2030?

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