Question

Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?

Resolved :No

23 comments23

Total Forecasters102

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

78.9

Community Peer Score

9.0

median 1.0%mean 1.5%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Demographics of Africa

Infectious disease

Food and Drug Administration

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.09

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

23.2k

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

9.3%

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