Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?

Resolved :No1%
17
23
Total Forecasters102
Community Prediction1% (1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
78.9
Community Peer Score
9.0
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
juancambeiro
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Mpox (Monkeypox)
Health & Pandemics
2022 Leaderboard
Virology
United Kingdom
ACAM2000
Smallpox vaccine
World Health Organization
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Demographics of Africa
Infectious disease
Food and Drug Administration

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