Question

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

26 comments26

Total Forecasters385

Community Prediction55.7% (45% - 65%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 55.7%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

China Will Launch War This Decade, Trump Nominee Says

Newsweek•Jan 16, 2025

Taiwan demonstrates sea defenses against potential Chinese attack as tensions rise with Beijing

Associated Press•Jan 21, 2025

New China satellite photos of D-Day-style landing barges making experts sweat

New York Post•Jan 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

70%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

53%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

China Will Launch War This Decade, Trump Nominee Says

Newsweek•Jan 16, 2025

Taiwan demonstrates sea defenses against potential Chinese attack as tensions rise with Beijing

Associated Press•Jan 21, 2025

New China satellite photos of D-Day-style landing barges making experts sweat

New York Post•Jan 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

70%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

53%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%