Question

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

37 comments37

Total Forecasters1189

Community Prediction70% (55% - 84%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

May 29, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

Change to State Department website sparks fiery rebuke from Beijing over Taiwanese independence

CNN•Feb 18, 2025

China says US has ‘gravely backpedaled’ on Taiwan

Associated Press•Feb 18, 2025

China Issues New Demands to Trump's America

Newsweek•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

70%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

60%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

May 29, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

Change to State Department website sparks fiery rebuke from Beijing over Taiwanese independence

CNN•Feb 18, 2025

China says US has ‘gravely backpedaled’ on Taiwan

Associated Press•Feb 18, 2025

China Issues New Demands to Trump's America

Newsweek•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

70%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

60%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%