Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

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Question

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

20
26
Total Forecasters266
Community Prediction61% (51% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 61%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Geopolitics
People's Liberation Army
China
President of the US
Taiwan–US relations
Taiwan
United States
Joint Chiefs of Staff

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